Will Egypt Go Iran’s Way?

Hosni Mubarak - Finally climbed down

The power of the people has asserted itself again. After 18 days of mass protests which virtually stalled every activity in the cradle of civilization, Egyptians rejoice at the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, the soldier-turned-politician who ruled the country for 30 years in his iron grip. Mubarak tried everything in his arsenal except brute military force to disperse the protests which raged against him, like rejecting the plan to make his son follow him as president, ousting the cabinet and senior colleagues of his National Democratic Party and even promising not to run again in the elections due to be held in September this year. Nothing availed against the exasperated people who were fed up with this man and his dictatorial way of functioning.

Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak served in the Egyptian Airforce in the Yom Kippur War against Israel and was made vice-president in 1975. After Anwar El-Sadat was assassinated in 1981, he took over as President and is the second longest served ruler in its history, after Muhammad Ali Pasha al-Masud ibn Agha, who ruled for 43 years (1805 – 1848). Though a totalitarianist, he maintained well kept up relationships with western powers and was enough of a pragmatist to deal with Israel to ensure peace in Palestine. The opposition forces in Egypt resorted to violent measures to get rid of him as evidenced by the six assassination attempts on him, which were thwarted. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second in command of Al Qaeda was expelled from Egypt by Mubarak. He was the head of the Non-Aligned Movement at the time of stepping down. India always had warm relations with him and was the recipient of Jawaharlal Nehru Award in 1995, which is given out for promoting international understanding, goodwill and friendship among people of the world.

It all began with the Tunisian uprising against Ben Ali, in December 2010 that forced the dictator to flee the country with riches he accumulated over decades. The Egyptian people took the cue from their Tunisian neighbours to bring about the impossible, even though it took longer. At times, it felt like the revolution would fizzle out by the adamant, uncompromising stance of the all-powerful military. Even now, the transition to democracy is not complete, with no immediate hopes for a free and fair election. What Mubarak has done is simply to hand over power back to the Higher Council of the Armed Forces. Even then, it is to be seen as a strategic victory for the long suffering masses of Egypt. Another important ramification of the revolt is the shockwave it has sent across the middle east and even as far as China. All the Arab states are anticipating some kind of trouble and fear that their hold on the people may loosen as a result. Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa has ordered $3000 to be paid to each family in the kingdom as a pretext to mark the 10th anniversary of a national charter for reforms! This is a new concept, that of bribing the entire people to keep quiet.

Another concern for people who want to see long lasting peace in the middle-east would be the infiltration of extremist elements among the protesters. When the demonstrations began, it were spontaneous outpourings from youths who would no longer acquiesce in to the deprivation of their basic rights and who were encouraged by their fellows in Tunisia. Later, however, elements of Islamic Brotherhood, the leading opposition party with militant sentiments joined the mainstream and is feared to hijack the democratic process. The parallel with Iran of 1979 becomes more and more clear. Just before the Islamic revolution occurred in Iran, the people were desperate to oust the Shah, who had lost all touch with his subjects and was merely propped up with western support, particularly from the United States. The determined efforts of the people were channeled by Ayatollah Khomaini, who succeeded in bringing together all the opposition groups in Iran, including its communists under his banner which eventually crushed the establishment and brought about change. Once power was handed over, the real colours of the Islamists were evident. Khomaini eliminated all opposition and founded the present Islamic state of Iran with open support to terrorism and which threatens world peace by eagerly trying to make nuclear weapons.

The experience of Iran should be a lesson to Egypt’s democratic partners. If they allow elements controlled by Hezbollah and Iran to operate unhindered in the midst of the ongoing upheaval, they would have to face a rejuvenated force later which it might be impossible to supplant. Once Islamic extremists are allowed to rule the country, they’d soon infiltrate the military and take Egyptian society back to medieval era by enforcing archaic practises.

The world is keenly watching the goings-on in Egypt. The situation is still very fluid.