Animals Can't Detect Quakes

A devastating quake has brought Nepal to its knees. 4400 people are confirmed death by now and Nepali administration fears that the toll may well exceed 10,000. Over 8 million people are affected or about a third of the total population. Being a developing state, Nepal’s infrastructure is strained almost to breaking point under the impact of this natural calamity of a scale unseen In the Himalayan state. As of now, every hand is engaged in extricating people trapped under the debris, before it’s too late. Soon, the effort will shift to reconstruct the damaged buildings. A huge amount of money will be required to put the economy back on track. The impact on tourism industry, which was one of the mainstays of Nepal, would naturally be huge as well. All reservations for the next two years might be cancelled. The country may have to start from scratch again, since it is reported that almost 80% of the ancient temples are either destroyed or heavily damaged.

As we know, Himalayas is a seismic zone inherently prone to devastating quakes like what we saw a few days back. The Indian tectonic plate pushing under the Eurasian plate is a scary reminder for people in this region. There have been no warnings this time too. Soon, hordes of astrologers and charlatans would come out to claim that they had predicted about the tremor. Unfortunately such warnings appear in media, only after the events. No human being has so far been able to forewarn his fellows about an imminent quake. Even technology is helpless as of now to make a prediction applicable to a specific period of time. How long will it take for mankind to device deep probes that sense the heart throb of the Earth?

There is another group of people who claim that they got wind of the impending disaster by the behavioral peculiarities exhibited by domestic animals. This argument is also false, but cloaked under the veneer of scientific probability. It is quite probable that a fault zone about to cause a tremor might release noise in the longer wavelengths, and hence lesser frequency. Man cannot detect sounds less than 20 Hz frequency, so he can’t hear them. But dogs and cats have the faculty to hear low frequency sounds as well. Then, isn’t it possible that the animals may be used to detect earth quakes before they actually occur?

Here, we are in a dilemma. We can’t simply reject the argument as baseless. Charlatans have an uncanny ability to exploit doubts in others to their own nefarious ends. A useful strategy to adopt here is to appeal to practical considerations. Even if we accept for argument’s sake that animals could sense tremors that are on the way, it is equally true that nobody escaped a quake by deducing it from the strange behaviour of an animal. After the event, many people ‘remember’ that their pets acted strangely, but never before it. What is the morale here? Even if the animals detect tremor signals, their behaviour is not altered or at least not changed in such a way as to attract the attention of people around them. Their masters could not detect anything extraordinary in their behavior. Isn’t it clear proof that animals can’t be used to sense earth quakes in a sensible way?

Kerala Hartal Calendar

Public life would come to a standstill on a hartal day

This post is a simple effort to serve as a guide to people from outside Kerala state who are unfortunate enough to arrive on a hartal day in Kerala. This is basically a survival guide to overcome the effects of hartal up to an extent and also provides an online schedule of planned hartals. As soon as a hartal is announced, this will be updated online, and people planning to travel to Kerala may do better to visit the hartal calendar before venturing on their journey. It is always good to postpone the trip, if at all possible. If your travel was planned much in advance, or is very important, you might have to do it anyway, whatever may be the risk. In such a case, you may read the following section.

1. Violence

Surprisingly, there is no risk of personal violence. The protesters may stop your vehicle, if you are riding in one, and may ask you to get out. If the mob is much agitated, they may smash the wind screen, but there is no chance that you will be personally injured.

2. Travel

Flights and railway are the two modes of transport which will operate without any hitch. Strikers won’t normally hinder movement of trains. So, if you can reach the railway station or airport, you can travel freely. On the other hand, all other forms of public transport will be stopped. Busses will not run, taxis will not ply, and auto rickshaws will stay off the road, for fear of their wind screens and tyres. Private transport will not be normally blocked, though many people are reluctant to take their cars on the road. Two wheelers have no restrictions. Protesters will not stop them. So, the best way to reach your destination is to hitchhike on two wheelers, who are generally helpful and would give you a free lift. But if you have heavy baggage, your options are limited. Private cars may or may not accommodate you, of course, depending on your appearance! Another option is to seek help from the Police, who might take you to your destination on one of your fortunate days.

3. Food

Food is the most difficult item to arrange on a hartal day. All restaurants will be closed. If you happen to stay in a hotel with an attached restaurant, you are safe. Otherwise, if you are on the road, there is absolutely no way to get food and drinks during forenoon in the case of dawn to dusk hartals. Eateries may function in the railway stations. It is always advisable to stock up provisions on the previous day itself. Street vendors generally open their stalls by around 2’o clock in the afternoon. Basic food items may be obtained from them. However, if you are exceedingly hungry in the morning, there is not much you can do other than begging at nearby homes.

4. Accommodation

No problem on this front. All hotels will function. If you can reach the hotel, the ‘rest’ is assured.

5. Hartal Calendar

All hartals cripple public life in Kerala, irrespective of the numerical strength of the organization calling for it. Keralites don’t want to take risks. So, don’t entertain the false hope that at least some daring trader would open his shop. Statewide hartals occur roughly about once in two months and district hartals occur more often. There are two types of hartals, one is of the lightning variety that is often called against some political violence. You would get hardly 24 hours notice in this case. Most often, the next day would be declared a hartal day. One point to remember is that no hartal would be called on Sundays and public holidays, because if you do, loss of productivity would be very minimal and the protesters naturally want to cause maximum loss to the public exchequer. The second type of hartal is called in protest against a policy of the government, such as liberalization, hike in petroleum prices, increase in insurance premium and the like. Here, the notice period would be around one week, so to say. So how would you know that a hartal is announced on the day you plan to visit Kerala?

I have started an online Kerala hartal scheduler, which will be updated as frequently as possible. You may see the schedule at TeamUp http://teamup.com/ksb4c10e215321a338/. Or, watch for shortened URL http://goo.gl/Gt9Qpn